Lee's Summit, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS63 KEAX 251053
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

...12Z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures likely Thursday afternoon as highs climb
  into the lower 90s.

- Strong storms possible Thursday evening as a strong cold front
  moves through the area.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible
  Thursday and Friday, especially for areas west of I-35.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Temperatures will turn hot once again today - Thursday due to broad
upper ridging over the western half of the CONUS and strong
southerly to southwesterly low-level flow. Highs today seem likely
to top out in the upper 80s, with just a 10% chance for 90 degrees
or higher at Kansas City (MCI). Temperatures surge warmer on
Thursday ahead of strong cold front moving south into the area. 1000-
850mb thickness values as high as 144.1 dam will support highs in
the lower to potentially middle 90s. If everything comes together
perfectly with the timing of the front and compressional warming
just ahead of the front during the afternoon/peak heating time
frame, we could see highs near 95 for the Kansas City area. This
would demolish the previous daily max record and be 2 degrees above
warmest March temperature ever for KC. Using our model certainty
tool, there is about a 15% chance for the high to reach or exceed 95
at MCI Thursday. Unlikely, but certainly achievable.

The other aspect to this warmth and the cold front moving through,
will be the potential for strong storms to develop Thursday evening.
Ahead of the front a strong cap at the base of the EML will very
likely inhibit convection through the afternoon and peak heating.
Convection looks more likely behind the front as the cap erodes. But
this results in significantly less instability and a narrow time
frame for strong storm potential. Current guidance suggest the best
potential after 00Z and before 06Z. Since low-level winds will
already be strong behind the front, any storm could locally enhance
wind gusts.

One last item for Thursday, elevated fire weather conditions look
possible west of I-35. This looks more likely behind the front with
the strong dry advection and windy conditions. Relative humidity
values improve through the evening as temperatures cool. So we`re
really looking at a couple of hours when the best potential
exists. Elevated fire weather conditions look possible again on
Friday with humidity values as low as 15-20 across northwest MO
and northeast KS. Winds will be decreasing through the day but
there may be a few gusts of 20-25 mph during the driest part of
the day. At this time, no fire weather headlines are planned.

Cooler and drier conditions move into the area Friday and Saturday,
with temperatures close normal for the time of year. For the early
part of next week, the warm pattern mentioned above reloads, with
strong southwesterly flow developing. It looks like there will
better access to Gulf moisture and that may lead to unsettled
weather Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with thick
high level clouds thinning out this afternoon. Winds increase/
become gusty late this morning and then diminish this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25:
KMCI: 90/1907
KSTJ: 83/1991

March 26:
KMCI: 85/1991
KSTJ: 89/1991

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CDB
CLIMATE...CMS